Treat silver as part of the procyclical or growth assets in your portfolio, advises Sanjay Kumar Singh.
The combination of sanctions, and low fuel prices is really hurting the Putin regime.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
Reiterating his earlier stance, BJP's Rajya Sabha member Subramanian Swamy has written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, asking him to sack RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan.
India's GDP growth to reach 8% by 2017. says World Bank
A reversal of policy at this juncture could jeopardise the recent gains on inflation
Movement of rupee and crude oil prices will also dictate the trend
Bankers said high interest rate could make Indian economy sluggish given that inflation is around 5%
Broader markets underperformed indices with BSE Midcap down 0.43% while the Smallcap index fell 0.07%.
But lower growth numbers in the quarters to come may not mean renewed weakness in the economy at the ground level, says Pranjul Bhandari.
In the current fiscal so far, retail inflation stabilised around 5 per cent, while wholesale price-based inflation averaged around 2.9 per cent during April-December.
It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.
Inflation indexed bonds assure a positive return over inflation.
The FMCG sector is generally considered to be a safe haven during difficult times as people never stop buying soap and toothpaste. However, weak rural and semi-urban demand has been a factor since the lockdowns of 2020-21 while rising inflation has also impacted margins. While the FMCG majors have survived on the basis of price hikes and good management practices, they have seen growth slowdowns and experienced margins being squeezed as raw materials and transport costs rose. The FMCG sector witnessed positive volume growth in the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) after five consecutive quarters of decline, and the rebound in demand was led by urban markets.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
Earnings growth, attractive valuations and change in FPI flows from negative to positive over the next 12 months are some of the key triggers for an upside. "A poor monsoon, high inflation and further rate hike are some of the key risks
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
Markets surged in late trades to snap five-day losing streak led by bank shares.
The Indian real estate consumer is still in the wait and watch mode.
Clouding the inflation outlook is the recommendation of the 7th pay panel for an average 24 per cent pay hike for millions of its employees, which would lift demand-driven price pressures.
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
Though inflation, on the basis of the wholesale price index, is nowhere near the 1990-91 level of 10.26 per cent and India is in a much better position to check it, the greater integration of our economy with the globe has exposed it to a much higher risk of imported inflation.
Food prices probably fueled a sharp rise in India's retail inflation in December after the record low struck the previous month.
Market participants must appreciate that staying cautious is a virtue for central bankers and should not expect a sudden reversal in the formal monetary policy stance.
'When you need to revive the economy, when you need to revive aggregate demand, you cut taxes.' 'But what's this government doing?' 'It's increasing taxes for the middle class and the vast majority of the poor on fuel, which has a ratchet effect on most other products.'
If rate cuts are fully transmitted, and RBI continues to cut rates in 2016, and earnings growth picks up as well, current valuations may be justified. Otherwise, equity will remain over-valued, says Devangshu Datta.
Keeping pace with the rapidly changing income and consumption pattern, the government will soon come out with a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and develop indices for measuring growth of SSI sector and calculating consumer prices in urban areas.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
Raghuram Rajan said the passage of the GST Bill augurs well for the growing political consensus for economic reforms.
What differentiates Rajan from his predecessors is his proactive steps in anticipating a problem and coming up with out-of-the-box solutions
As inflation rate is near the upper limit of the comfort zone, experts rule out rate cuts anytime soon
CPI inflation slowed to 9.39% in April compared with 10.39% in March.
The survey showed firms' confidence regarding future business grew at the slowest pace in a year last month.
'If there is an RBI majority in the committee, there is no question of a veto.'
Govt likely to get full control on policy rate.
Food and fuel are two perennial areas of concern.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by about 322 points to close above the 60,000 level on Monday tracking gains in banking, IT and energy stocks amid positive global equities. The 30-share barometer closed higher by 321.99 pts or 0.54 per cent at a three-week high of 60,115.13, as 21 of the index constituents closed in the green. After a strong opening, the index touched a day's high of 60,284.55 and a low of 59,912.29.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances